A mere 60 days prior when Morgan Rogers found himself on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused while his coach scolded him over failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if his performances were an indicator or a cause for Villa's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
That’s an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. History, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, while the victories have accumulated.
As per Opta, in only two games have Villa posted an expected goals figure significantly higher than the other team. For a club that have strung together ten consecutive victories, they look curiously susceptible – however right now the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach looks like to exchange chances with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with two precise efforts. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened when facing Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal stemmed from an exquisite effort, arced right inside the goal frame from a wide position. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival they will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, will not continue to drilling the football past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the player he showed in Germany.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Savoring the Moment
But then, this was unforeseen. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely back in October, no one envisioned the midfielder as the year closed would be at the forefront of a title charge while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed precisely because it seems so surreal. As Rogers stood in front of the North End at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form do not happen often and must be appreciated.
